Three students from the Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, has performed research on diabetes in Indonesia during the pandemic. Their research has resulted in a model correlating diabetes mortality rates with various influencing factors, and strategies to be taken in order to reduce said mortality rates. Diabetes is a serious problem in Indonesia. Data from the Ministry of Health in 2020 revealed that 34,5% of mortal cases of Covid-19 come from patients of diabetes mellitus.
The names of the three students are Alivanza Firdaus Rhufyano, Daffa Aqilah Sofiyan, and Hanif Rahman Arifin. They conducted their research under the supervision of Dr. Komarudin, ST, M.Eng. of the Department of Industrial Engineering. Their findings have landed them in the second place in Mathematics Modelling Competition (MMC) 2022, a competition held by the Union of Students of Mathematics (HIMATIKA) ITB on the 27th of December 2021 to the 20th of March 2022.
Alivanza, the leader of the team, explained the results of their findings in brief. “Our research had as its aim a model [demonstrating] the effect of diabetes during Covid-19 on mortality rates. This model allowed us to suggest strategy which may reduce mortality rates among sufferers of diabetes during Covid-19. We analysed the dynamics of diabetes population during Covid-19 and made a model comprising eleven compartments, S, D, Dc, I, Id, Ic, R, Rd, Rc, M, and Md, each representing classes of the population grouped according to diabetes and Covid-19 infection rates. The model was then applied to current Indonesian population statistics. We suggested five strategies that may help reduce mortality risks among sufferers of diabetes during the pandemic.”
The five strategies are social distancing and mandatory face masks in public, mass vaccination programmes, public diabetes awareness programmes, accessible healthcare, and a tax on less-than-healthy food, including sugar. “These five strategies were then implemented in three differing scenarios. Results of the simulation has shown that the most effective scenario is the second one: a combination of mandatory face mask [policies] and social distancing, mass vaccination programmes, public diabetes awareness programmes, and accesible healthcare. Implementation of the second strategy resulted in a drop in mortality rates among patients of diabetes by 0.3444%: from 1.1022% to 0.7578%,” explained Daffa.
The Dean of the Faculty of Engineering, Prof. Dr. Heri Hermansyah, ST., M.Eng., IPU., expressed his appreciation of the three students. “These students’ results can become a solution to problems faced by patients of diabetes in the world and Indonesia during the last few years. Rising mortality rates amongs patients of diabetes is the result of the global Covid-19 pandemic. We hope that the model developed by the team can be taken as feedback in government policy-making processes to come.”
